The San Antonio Housing Market This Fall: What September's Numbers Show

The question I'm getting most often this fall is some version of "is the market falling apart?"

It isn't. But something real has changed since June, and the honest answer requires looking at four months of data rather than one headline. Here is where the San Antonio market actually stands, what's driving it, and the two mistakes I'm watching people make on both sides of the transaction.

Where the Market Stands: September 2026

According to the San Antonio Board of REALTORS® (SABOR) report for September 2026, home sales were down 2% from September 2025, and the median sale price was down 2% year over year, to just below $302,000.

Inventory sat at roughly six months. The average time to sell approached three months. About nine in ten sellers received their original asking price.

SABOR's 2026 Board Chair, Ed Zapata, framed it this way: "September's market offers buyers a broader selection and more time to evaluate their options."

That's the summary. The sequence is more informative than the snapshot.

The Median, Month by Month

Taking SABOR's monthly reports in order:

Reporting month	Median price	Months of inventory	Avg. days on market
June 2026	$329,730	6.13	77
July 2026	$315,000	6.11	81
August 2026	$299,275	5.8	82
September 2026	just below $302,000	about 6	approaching 90

Two things to notice. The median eased through the summer and then steadied in September. And days on market climbed in every single month — from 77 in June to roughly 90 in September.

That second column is the one sellers should care about more than the first. A median is a statement about what sold, not about what any particular home is worth. If the mix of what closed shifted toward smaller or lower-priced properties, the median falls even when no individual home lost value. Days on market, by contrast, says something direct about how long the market is taking to make up its mind. I wrote about this distinction in What Actually Determines Your Home's Value in San Antonio, and it matters more in a month like this one than it does in a fast market.

The Rate Story: 7.24% Against 6.17% a Year Ago

Most of the demand change traces back to one number.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey released October 29, 2026 put the 30-year fixed average at 7.24%, down from 7.32% the prior week. A year earlier, the same survey read 6.17%. The 15-year average was 6.60%.

That is roughly a full percentage point of additional rate compared with last fall. A buyer qualifying on the same income has materially less purchasing power than they did a year ago — which is not a market in trouble so much as a market in which the same households can afford less house. Zapata made the same point in SABOR's September release, adding that for local buyers he considers the combination of prices, property taxes and insurance a larger obstacle than rates alone.

What that means for a specific budget is a conversation for a lender, not for a blog post. Rates quoted in a national weekly survey are an average, not an offer.

Six Months of Inventory Is Not a Crash

Months of inventory answers a narrow question: at the current pace of sales, how long would it take to sell everything currently listed. The figure has hovered right around six since June — 6.13, 6.11, 5.8, and about 6 again in September.

Six months is the number conventionally cited as the dividing line between a market that favors sellers and one that favors buyers. Sitting on it means neither side has structural leverage. Practically, it means a buyer can see a property on Saturday, think about it, and still have a reasonable chance of writing on Tuesday — which was not true of this market three years ago.

It also means the nine-in-ten figure deserves a careful read. Receiving your original asking price is an average across what sold, and it says nothing about the homes that didn't sell. A seller who prices correctly at the outset tends to land near list. A seller who prices off June comparables tends to spend the discount on carrying costs and a reduction later.

San Antonio Against Texas and the Nation

Context matters for judging whether this is local.

Statewide in September 2026, Texas home sales fell by more than 4% year over year, with a median of $330,000, down just under 1%. Nationally, the National Association of REALTORS® reported existing-home sales down about 2% from a year earlier; NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that August and September were the two slowest months for home sales of the year.

So San Antonio's 2% sales decline was shallower than the state's. This is not a San Antonio story. It's a rate story playing out everywhere, with local variation in how hard it lands.

The Permit Pipeline Is Moving the Other Way

Here is the number almost nobody is pairing with the resale data.

Residential building permits authorized in the San Antonio–New Braunfels metro, per U.S. Census Bureau data: 952 units in September 2026, against 643 in September 2025. August 2026 came in at 822, against 663 a year earlier. The series is not seasonally adjusted and covers all structure types.

So while resale transactions softened by 2%, the new-supply pipeline authorized substantially more units than it did a year ago. Permits are not closings, and the lag between one and the other varies — but a seller listing in the first half of next year should expect more new-construction competition than a seller faced last year, not less. If you are selling an existing home in a corridor with active development, that's the comparison set your buyer will be walking through on the same weekend.

What Sellers Are Getting Wrong This Fall

Pricing off June. June's median was $329,730. September's was near $302,000. A seller anchored to spring comparables is pricing into a market that no longer exists, and the market's response is silence rather than a low offer.

Treating the asking-price statistic as a promise. Nine in ten receiving original asking price describes homes that sold. The discount in this market is usually taken at the list price, not at the negotiating table.

Underinvesting in presentation as the window lengthens. At 77 days, a mediocre listing eventually finds its buyer. At 90, it accumulates showings without offers and starts to look shopworn. Presentation compounds over a longer marketing window, which is the argument in Presentation Is the First Offer.

What Buyers Are Getting Wrong This Fall

Waiting for a specific rate. Nobody can tell you where rates go, and I won't pretend otherwise. What's observable is that six months of inventory gives you something a 2021 buyer never had: time, and more than one option.

Negotiating only on price. In a balanced market the flexible terms are often elsewhere — option period length, repair credits, closing cost contributions, timing. Buyers fixated on the headline number leave the rest unasked.

Forgetting the carrying costs. Taxes and insurance move the monthly figure as much as rate does in this state, and they're easy to underestimate before the first bill arrives. Understanding Your Bexar County Property Tax Bill covers how that number is actually built.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the San Antonio housing market slowing down? By SABOR's September 2026 report, sales were down 2% and the median was down 2% year over year, with days on market rising every month since June. Slower, yes — on the measures that are published.

Is this a buyer's market or a seller's market? Inventory has held near six months since June, which is the figure conventionally used to describe a balanced market. Neither side has a structural advantage at that level.

What is the median home price in San Antonio right now? Just below $302,000 in SABOR's September 2026 report, down about 2% from September 2025. That's metro-wide across all property types.

How long is it taking to sell a home? The average approached three months in September 2026, up from 77 days in June.

How do mortgage rates compare with last year? Freddie Mac's survey released October 29, 2026 put the 30-year fixed average at 7.24%, against 6.17% a year earlier.

Are prices going to fall further? I don't forecast prices and I'd be suspicious of anyone who does. The series worth watching are inventory, days on market, and the permit pipeline — all three are published and all three are checkable.

What These Numbers Don't Tell You

SABOR's monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted, and a median reflects the composition of what closed in that month. A shift in the mix of what sold moves the median without any individual home changing in value, which is why a four-month sequence is more useful than any single month and why month-to-month comparisons should be read loosely.

SABOR's September release is distributed to members as a document I could not read directly; the September figures above come from SABOR's reported numbers and are rounded at the source, which is why this post says "just below" and "approaching" rather than quoting cents. The June and July figures are read directly from SABOR's own published releases.

Everything here is metro-wide and includes all property types. The luxury segment is a thin slice of it — in SABOR's July 2026 report, sales at $750,000 and above were 6.82% of all closings, and sales between $200,000 and $499,999 were 67.48%. A metro median moved by that middle bracket says very little about what is happening in The Dominion, Cordillera Ranch or Anaqua Springs Ranch, which move on their own supply and their own buyer pool.

Permit counts are authorizations, not completions or closings, and the series is not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are a weekly national average, not a quote available to any particular borrower. And nothing in this post predicts where prices are headed, because that isn't knowable.

This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Figures correspond to the reporting periods and sources indicated and are subject to revision. Verify details applicable to any specific property, and consult qualified professionals — a lender, an attorney, an accountant and a tax advisor — before making a decision. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.